A Breakdown: Providence’s Most Clutch Shot Maker

As tends to be the case come May, debates are springing up regarding the most clutch shooters in the NBA. Just this week, ESPN produced a surprising statistic, noting that Kobe Bryant went 7-27 in his playoff career on game tying/go ahead baskets in the final 24 seconds (7-28 after he missed what would have been a game-tying three against Oklahoma City on Saturday night).  For the record, ESPN had Michael Jordan down as a 50% shooter in the same situation for the duration of his playoff career (9-18).

This talk led to the question of who Providence’s most clutch shot maker was this season, and how to best determine that considering the Friars played in so few games that came down to the final shot.

“Clutch” is a vague term, and depending upon how one manipulates the numbers, it can dramatically shift the argument.

In an effort to determine who Providence’s most clutch shot maker was last season, I chose to look at how the four main scoring options on last season’s squad (Vincent Council, LaDontae Henton, Bryce Cotton, Gerard Coleman) shot in two possession games at three stages of the second half: under 13 minutes to play, under five minutes to play, and in the final two minutes.  This data was compiled strictly from conference play.

Interestingly, of the 19 Big East games Providence played this season (including the Big East Tournament loss to Seton Hall), there were eight games in which the Friars did not have possession of the ball either trailing or leading by six points or less in the final 13 minutes.  Seven of those games were losses, with the lone win coming in the blowout of Louisville.  While Providence lost by only six to Notre Dame, they never had the ball when they were within two possessions (there were times when they trailed by eight, cut it to six, but the Irish scored on the next possession to bump it back to a three possession game).

These shooting numbers were taken from ESPN’s game logs, which provide a shot by shot account of each of Providence’s Big East games this season.  Any shots taken in overtime are included in the “under two minutes” figures.

So, just who was Providence most clutch shooter in 2011-12?  Let’s take a look at the four players individually first.

Gerard Coleman 

Coleman under 13 minutes to play with a scoring margin +-6:  56% field goals (9-16), 45% free throws (11-20)

Coleman under 5 minutes to play with a scoring margin +-6: 55% field goals (5-9), 25% free throws (3-12)

Coleman under 2 minutes to play with a scoring margin +-6: 60% field goals (3-5), 33% free throws (2-6)

 

Vincent Council

Council under 13 minutes to play with a scoring margin +-6: 39% field goals (11-28), 74% free throws (17-23), 28% from three (2-7)

Council under 5 minutes to play with a scoring margin +-6: 15% field goals (2-13), 72% free throws (8-11), 0-3 from three

Council under 2 minutes to play with a scoring margin +-6: 28% field goals (2-8), 66% free throws (4-6), 0-2 from three

 

LaDontae Henton: 

Henton under 13 minutes to play with a scoring margin +-6: 52% field goals (11-21), 77% free throws (7-9), 66% from three (4-6)

Henton under 5 minutes to play with a scoring margin +-6: 61% field goals (8-13), 85% free throws (6-7), 60% from three (3-5)

Henton under 2 minutes to play with a scoring margin +-6: 55% field goals (5-9), 100% free throws (3-3), 60% from three (3-5)

 

Bryce Cotton

Cotton under 13 minutes to play with a scoring margin +-6: 47% field goals (8-17), 100% free throws (11-11), 44% from three (4-9)

Cotton under 5 minutes to play with a scoring margin +- 6: 20% field goals (1-5), 100% free throws (8-8), 33% from three (1-3)

Cotton under 2 minutes to play with a scoring margin +-6: 0-2 field goals, 100% free throws (5-5), 0-2 from three

 

Analysis:

With the absence of rebounds, assists, turnovers and defensive stats, this study was meant to more closely examine who Providence’s most clutch shot maker was this season, not necessarily their most clutch overall player.  In other words, there’s no taking into account how many times Council set up big late shots, despite shooting the lowest percentage overall.

The term “shot maker” is used here instead of “shooter” as few would argue that Bryce Cotton is a worse shooter than Gerard Coleman, but Coleman’s field goal percentage dwarfs that of his former classmate from the field.

For Coleman, the Georgetown game hurt his numbers, as he shot 0-6 from the free throw line over the final 13 minutes of the game.  It was a bit surprising to see that he shot 56% percentage in the final 13 minutes, and that his numbers from the field stayed consistent as the game wore on.

Providence fans often feel as though Vincent Council is slighted when the best lead guards in the country are discussed, but in order to get that respect his shooting in close games must rise.  Council’s 2-13 from the field with under five minutes to play in two possession games may have been the most eye-catching number.  While converting at a high rate at the free throw line in the final 13 (17-23), it’s safe to draw the conclusion that his shooting efficiency in close situations must improve if he’s going to completely round out his game as one of the best point guards in the nation as a senior.

Council’s numbers do take more of a hit than his teammates as he is the one putting up desperate shots late in close games.  He twice dribbled the length of the floor and missed threes at the buzzer against West Virginia (end of regulation and overtime), for example.  On a team lacking on players who can create for themselves, Council’s numbers surely took a hit as he was the top, and sometimes only, option for creating late offense off the dribble.

No one else should touch the ball when the Friars are being sent to the line next year if he’s not wearing #11.  Cotton was perfect from the free throw line in late and close situations last season.  For as good a shooter as Cotton is, he only put up five shots total in the final five minutes of two possessions games – connecting on only one of them (Henton and Council took 13, Coleman nine).  This may be a testament to Cotton’s inability to create his own offense – an area of improvement heading into his junior season.

Most impressive was Henton, the only player on this list to shoot a consistent percentage in all three timeframes (52% under 13 left, 65% under five, 55% under two) while also shooting tremendously well from both the free throw and three point lines when it mattered most.

He shot over 60% from three point range in two possession games in all three phases studied here, while making 6-7 free throws in the final five minutes of two possession games.  He was the only Friar to hit a three point field goal in the final two minutes of a two possession game (or in all three instances, a one possession game), and he did it three times on five attempts.

As the season wore on, Henton’s usage went up late in close games.  He rarely shot in the final five minutes of two possession games early (one shot against Georgetown, one versus Seton Hall, followed up with no field goal attempts against Marquette, South Florida, and Rutgers).  As the season wore on he was taking, and making huge shots, most notably an overtime 3 against West Virginia, a buzzer beating jumper at DePaul, and a pair of three pointers against Connecticut.

Henton’s overall scoring and rebounding numbers were outstanding for a freshman playing in the Big East this season, but it was his efficiency from the field, three point range, and at the line which made him Providence’s top shot maker in close and late game situations.

 

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