Friar Basketball

Predicting the Big East

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My predictions for the 2012-13 Big East season:

Ranking the conference:

1. Louisville: Some have the Cards as the top team in the nation — and for good reason.  Louisville returns the core of a Final Four team, including four potential NBA prospects in Peyton Siva, Wayne Blackshear, Chane Behanan and Gorgui Dieng.  Some have Siva as the preseason conference player of the year (not here), Dieng is the league’s best interior defender and both the wide-bodied Behanan(6’6, 250 pounds) and Blackshear are matchup problems.  Russ Smith might be the best bench scorer in the conference  and incoming freshman Montrezl Harrell plays with disdain for his opponents.

Oh yeah, they have a hall of fame coach as well.  No one had the Cards in the Final Four when they lost five of seven games from late-December into mid-January last season, but Rick Pitino’s group overachieved for the second year in a row.  Now they get a healthy Blackshear and a year’s worth of experience.

Newcomer to watch: Harrell.  The former Virginia Tech pledge wowed this writer in the spring when he physically dominated Noah Vonleh and Zach Auguste at the Prep Nationals in March.  He plays with a nasty streak and should contribute as a freshman behind Behanan and Dieng.

2. Syracuse: Experience is a question mark on the surface, with four starters from last season gone (three of which are in the NBA), but few reload like Jim Boeheim.  The Orange have more experience coming back than most realize, however.  Brandon Triche will be the steadying influence on this bunch, and he’s joined by a pair of underrated 6’8 forwards in CJ Fair and James Southerland.  Fair could be due for a breakout junior season and all conference honors.

Michael Carter-Williams gets his shot at more playing time after sitting for long stretches as a freshman.  The 6’5 combo guard is a versatile scorer.  Like Carter-Williams, both 6’9 sophomore Rakeem Christmas and 6’9, 275 pound freshman Dajuan Coleman were McDonald’s All Americans who figure to step into significant minutes this year.  Add redshirt freshman sniper Trevor Cooney and athletic freshman Jerami Grant, and this is a deep and talented team on paper — one good enough to push Louisville if Carter-Williams and Christmas can make the leap as sophomores.

Newcomer to watch: Coleman. Is the big man ready to play right away?

3. Notre Dame.  I’m not falling for it again this year.  Perennially underrated heading into the season, Mike Brey returns five starters a year after making a surprising run to the NCAA Tournament following a season-ending injury to their best player (Tim Abromaitis).  This year ND returns all five starters from a season ago, including player of the year candidate Jack Cooley and the solid backcourt pairing of Eric Atkins and Jerian Grant.

Newcomer to watch: Missouri product Cameron Biedscheid committed to the Irish two years ago and proceeded to average 29 points per game as a junior and 31 as a senior.  Otto Porter was a Missouri product who had a major impact in the Big East a season ago.

4. Pittsburgh: I’m expecting a bigger bounce back year for the Panthers than most, thanks in large part to their large freshman Steven Adams who was outstanding on the three occasions I saw him a year ago (versus Tilton in January, at the National Prep Invitational in February and at Nationals in March).  If he’s not seven feet, he’s close, with the capability to shoot from 20 feet, pass with his back to the basket, finish with authority and snatch rebounds in a crowd, he’s the total package.  He seemed completely unfazed transitioning to a new country and team last January which bodes well for this new chapter of his career.

The point guard slot should be more stable in 2012-13, as Tray Woodall is healthy, and sturdy top 75 freshman James Robinson joins the mix.  Transfer scorer Trey Zeigler is eligible to play this season and he’ll join an experience group that includes Lamar Patterson, Dante Taylor, Talib Zanna and JJ Moore.  Zanna (6’9, 230), Taylor (6’9, 240), Malcolm Gilbert (6’11, 235) and Adams (7’0, 240) should allow Jamie Dixon to get back to his bruising style once again.

Newcomer to watch: Adams will be the league’s best freshman barring injury.  He was better than Nerlens Noel when they went head to head in January — and he’d been in the country for three days.

5. Georgetown: It’s difficult to project where the Hoyas will land after losing a trio of starters.  They return a cast of role players around budding sophomore star Otto Porter — my pick for conference player of the year.  If the Hoyas are to land in the league’s top five Porter will have to play like the league’s best, as experience will be limited around him.

Massachusetts product Nate Lubick is a former top 40 prospect turned serviceable Big East power forward.  Where Georgetown could get a big lift is from point guard Markel Starks who will be given every opportunity to emerge.

Newcomer to watch: 6’3 D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera is a scorer who will be asked to do just that as a freshman.  He could put up big numbers for this group.

6. Cincinnati: Sean Kilpatrick and Cashmere Wright make up one of the best backcourts in the conference for the Bearcats who fought their way through adversity a season ago to make the Sweet 16.  The frontcourt has its question marks with the graduation of the beastly Yancy Gates, and the lack of depth there has me questioning if 6 is too high for this group, despite what many national pundits believe.

Newcomer to watch: Junior College combo forward Titus Rubles is only 6’7, but does damage inside.

7. St. John’s: Opinions vary on the Johnnies, but I’m going to take a shot on Steve Lavin’s group in hopes that D’Angelo Harrison can lead a group of newcomers in his second season on campus.  Harrison is the second-leading returning scorer behind DePaul’s Cleveland Melvin and broke St. John’s freshman scoring record a season ago.

The Storm could improve in two key areas if things break right: at point guard and defensively.  Phil Greene started at the point as a freshman and he’ll be joined by one-time highly regarded prospect Jamal Branch who transferred in from Texas A&M.  Defensively, St. John’s will need a lift from a pair of PC recruits in Chris Obekpa and JaKarr Sampson. Obekpa, of course, is a terrific shot blocker, while Sampson is showing signs of being a defensive menace already, blocking six shots and coming up with six steals in an exhibition game.

Newcomer to watch: Sampson.  He’s a freak of an athlete who has drawn early comparisons to last year’s Big East freshman of the year Mo Harkless.  He’s not the offensive weapon Harkless was, but he’s a far greater athlete and may be the best finisher above the rim in the Big East.

8. Marquette: It’s hard to bet against Buzz Williams, but this team has a lot of question marks early. Gone are Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder, while sophomore guard Todd Mayo is academically ineligible after a solid freshman campaign.  That’s a problem.

Vander Blue is a Gerard Coleman type — a highly rated slasher who struggles mightily from outside, while Junior Cadougan is a solid, yet unspectacular veteran point guard.  Buzz will need a big year from Arizona State transfer Trent Lockett who is eligible immediately after averaging 13 points per game and over 40% from 3 a season ago.  6’7 Jamil Wilson will have to emerge for a frontcourt with big bodies in Davante Gardner (6’8, 290) and Chris Otule (6’11, 275) filling the paint.  They’ll have to win with defense this year.

Newcomer to watch: Lockett.  

9. Villanova: A surprise pick at 9 perhaps, and one I’ll hold my nose in making it after the way the past two seasons ended, but Nova does return a pair of big men who could make them a tough out if they improve.  Mouphtaou Yarou still has upside after averaging 11 points and eight rebounds a year ago, while the tide-turner could be JayVaughn Pinkston – the 6’7, 260 pound sophomore power forward who had four double doubles in Big East play last season.  If Pinkston breaks out this team could push for a top 8 spot.

The backcourt has been completely revamped, with Wake Forest transfer Tony Chennault looking to get huge minutes, and Ryan Arcidiacono one of the better incoming freshman who could see immediate minutes.

Newcomer to watch: Arcidiacono.  He’s 6’4 play-maker with huge upside who had back surgery last December.  Will that slow him?  There’s a lot of talent there.

10. Rutgers: I’m taking a shot on Rutgers at #10, and there’s reason to do so, as one of the five youngest teams in the country last season returns a core that has a high ceiling.  Will they be able to start to scratch that potential as early as 2012-13?

For all of their youth they defeated a pair of top 10 teams a season ago, showing glimpses of what they could eventually become.

The sophomore guard trio of Eli Carter (their returning scorer from last year), high school All American Myles Mack and point guard Jerome Seagears gives Mike Rice a lot of versatility.  And though the loss of Gil Biruta to URI certainly hurts, former top 20 big man Wally Judge is eligible to play after transferring in from Kansas State, while 6’9 Kadeem Jack and the steady 6’8, 240 pound sophomore Derek Randall give them depth at the four and five.

Where the Scarlet Knights are sneaky good is at small forward, where Dane Miller and Mike Poole are reliable, unheralded veterans.  They may be a year away, but the pieces are starting to come together for Rice in year three.

Newcomer to watch: Judge.  After a pair of less than stellar seasons at K-State, can he blossom in New Brunswick?

11. Providence: The dynamics of the PC offense will change in Vincent Council’s senior season, as the Friars swap up good slashing, horrible shooting Gerard Coleman and insert freshman shooter Josh Fortune into his place in the starting lineup early.  While the floor will be spread, Council will be the only Friar capable of breaking his man down off of the dribble until McDonald’s All American Kris Dunn returns from offseason shoulder surgery.  Council is also the only point guard on the roster until Dunn returns.  The PC senior is the league’s top returning assist man and third in scoring.

Where the Friars land will be largely contingent on what Ed Cooley can squeeze out of a shallow frontcourt.  Sophomore LaDontae Henton is a pillar, but beyond him question marks abound.  Can Kadeem Batts find consistency?  When will Sidiki Johnson be eligible to play, and how effective will he be after missing what amounts to the past two seasons (sitting out his transfer year and missing a large chunk of his senior season in high school due to injury)?

If Dunn and Johnson can return before a relatively soft out of conference schedule wraps the Friars could push their way into the top 10 in the league.  Depth will be a major question mark before they return.

Newcomer to watch: Dunn.  

12. Connecticut: The Huskies could be a potentially scary team come February with a pair of pesky scoring guards in Ryan Boatright and Shabazz Napier, combining with promising freshman Omar Calhoun to form a tough 1-3 group.

Questions abound for UConn heading into this season though.  Head coach Kevin Ollie is on a one year deal, the frontcourt will have to rely on the likes of DeAndre Daniels, Phil Nolan, and 7’1 junior Enosch Wolf (who will cross the 10 point plateau for his career the next time he scores).  There’s a lot of uncertainty facing this group, and I have questions in regards to whether Napier and Boatright are the type of leaders to drag them through it.  Napier could emerge as the scorer that many projected, as shot attempts will be readily available for him and Boatright.

Newcomer to watch: Calhoun.  The New Yorker can score in a couple of different ways and will have as many opportunities as any other top 50 recruit in the Big East.

13. DePaul: Cleveland Melvin has been a star since he stepped on the floor at DePaul and classmate Brandon Young has been a reliable sidekick.  Can the duo pull the Demons out of the cellar now that they are upperclassmen?  This was a group that scored over 74 points per game last year, but were one of the worst high major defensive teams in the country and on the glass.

Melvin is perhaps the conference’s best scorer (17.5 ppg as a sophomore) and fellow junior Moses Morgan made over 50 three pointers last year at nearly 40%.

Newcomer to watch: Small forward DeJaun Marrero brings an aggressiveness and grit missing in recent seasons.

14. South Florida: No, I didn’t forget about South Florida, who most have rated in the top half of the conference.  Many are high on the Bulls after they won a pair of tournament games last season, citing sophomore point guard Anthony Collins and junior forward Victor Rudd as the keys for this season, but is that duo on par with Council and Henton?  Rudd is getting nods as a potential All Big East performer, but he shot a mere 37% from the field a season ago.

They beat only one ranked team last season.

USF defeated teams by grinding games out and winning with size, yet Gus Gilchrist and Ron Anderson Jr are both gone and 6’11, 275 pound JUCO monster Waverly Austin will not suit up for them this year.  They could well prove me wrong, but I’d like to see this system succeed for a second year in a row before buying in.

Newcomer to watch: Musa Abdul-Aleem comes from the junior college ranks with a good amount of buzz.  He’s a 6’5, 221 pound powerhouse.

15. Seton Hall: After faltering down the stretch last season the Pirates head into this one without a pair of highly productive seniors in Jordan Theodore and Herb Pope.  Neither will be easy to replace.

Kevin Willard had a very solid pairing coming back in Fuquan Edwin (one of the more under-appreciated two-way players in the league) and sophomore Aaron Cosby, yet Cosby is shelved with a knee injury.  Point guard play will be a looming question on the heels of Theodore’s graduation.

Newcomer to watch: Monstrous South Illinois transfer Gene Teague should step into early minutes.  He’s 6’9, 290 pounds and should start for the Pirates.

 

All Big East Teams:

1st Team

  • Vincent Council – Providence
  • Otto Porter – Georgetown
  • Peyton Siva – Louisville
  • Jack Cooley – Notre Dame
  • Cleveland Melvin – DePaul
2nd Team
  • Michael Carter-Williams – Syracuse
  • Sean Kilpatrick – Cincinnati
  • Steven Adams – Pittsburgh
  • Gorgui Dieng – Louisville
  • Ryan Boatright – Connecticut
3rd Team
  • Wayne Blackshear – Louisville
  • Chane Behanan – Louisville
  • Tray Woodall – Pittsburgh
  • Fuquan Edwin – Seton Hall
  • D’Angelo Harrison – St. John’s
All Rookie
  • Adams – Pittsburgh
  • Ryan Arcidiacono – Villanova
  • JaKarr Sampson – St. John’s
  • Kris Dunn – Providence
  • Omar Calhoun – Connecticut
Player of the Year: Porter, Georgetown
Newcomer of the Year: Adams, Pittsburgh

 

Email Kevin at kevin.farrahar@friarbasketball.com

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